Indonesian security forces had seemed to be getting a handle on terrorist threats in recent years Attack Signals Rebound of Battered Terrorist Group

Attack Signals Rebound of Battered Terrorist Group

By JAMES HOOKWAY

Indonesian security forces had seemed to be getting a handle on terrorist threats in recent years after a series of deadly attacks earlier in the decade.

They captured or killed at least 200 Islamist militants, often with the help of U.S. training and equipment. Many analysts had said the government was so successful that it had all but obliterated the region's best-known terrorist organization, Jemaah Islamiyah, an Islamist terrorist network linked to al Qaeda.

Now, intelligence experts aren't so sure. A number of suspected Jemaah Islamiyah operatives -- most notably Noordin Mohamed Top, who is implicated in the 2002 Bali bombings that killed more than 200 people -- have consistently evaded the dragnet. Some intelligence experts fear Mr. Noordin or others may have regrouped into a resurgent Jemaah Islamiyah, or organized other terrorist cells that could plot further attacks if they aren't apprehended.

Indonesian officials say it is too early to conclude who was behind the coordinated breakfast-time blasts in Jakarta on Friday.

Much of the speculation so far has focused on Mr. Noordin, a 40-year-old Malaysian accountant and suspected bomb expert who analysts say is arguably the most dangerous terrorist on the loose in Indonesia.

Intelligence officials and analysts say Mr. Noordin played a leading role in planning and executing many if not all of the major terrorist attacks in Indonesia in recent years, including a second Bali bombing in 2005, an attack on the Australian Embassy in Jakarta in 2004 and a bombing at the JW Marriott hotel in 2003 that left 12 people dead.

"Mr. Noordin is the most capable and experienced bomber within the broader Jemaah Islamiyah group," says Rohan Gunaratna, head of the International Center for Political Violence at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University.

Earlier this week, police discovered explosive materials in a house while searching for Mr. Noordin in central Java.

Mr. Noordin's ability to evade capture has frustrated U.S. and Australian security forces, which helped to equip and train Indonesia's counterterrorism squad in the aftermath of the Bali bombings in 2002.

U.S. officials generally regard their efforts in Indonesia as one of the standout successes of their global antiterror campaign. Until Friday, there hadn't been a major terrorist attack in the country since the second round of bombings in Bali in 2005. The Jemaah Islamiyah group, which has expressed a wish to create an Islamic caliphate in Southeast Asia, had appeared to largely fall apart.

Scores of operatives have been captured or killed in shootouts, while others fled to the nearby Philippines, where they linked up with Muslim separatists to stage fresh bombing campaigns and deepen a decades-old insurgency that is still under way despite U.S. efforts to train and support the Philippine military. Jemaah Islamiyah's former operations chief, Riduan Isamuddin, or Hambali, was tracked down in Thailand in 2003 and sent to Guantanamo Bay, where he remains in U.S. detention.

At the same time, Indonesia has moved steadily toward embracing democracy after years of authoritarian rule under the late President Suharto. Some security analysts began worrying more about the Philippines' ability to clamp down on organizations such as the Abu Sayyaf group and Moro Islamic Liberation Front, which are fighting for an independent Islamic state in the south of the predominantly Christian Philippines. Both the Philippines-based groups have links to al Qaeda and previously helped train militants from Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia.

Peace talks between the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front collapsed last year, leading to renewed fighting and the deaths of more than 300 people. Half a million other people were displaced. The Abu Sayyaf group, meanwhile, has resumed kidnapping aid workers, teachers and other people as they push their own separatist agenda.

Thailand, too, has drawn attention in recent years after a long-dormant Muslim separatist movement erupted in the south of the country in 2004. Since then, more than 3,600 people have been killed, mostly civilians.

Mr. Noordin, meanwhile, persistently evaded capture. In November 2005, counterterrorism officials tracked him and his chief bomb maker, Azahari Husin, to a house in central Java. Mr. Azahari died in a shootout with police, but Mr. Noordin slipped away before it began. Inside, investigators found a video in which Mr. Noordin threatened more bombings, along with plans sketching out attacks on Christian churches and shopping malls.

Mr. Noordin's movements since then have been unclear. The International Crisis Group, a nonprofit group dedicated to resolving global conflicts, said in a research report in May that Mr. Noordin continues to look for new recruits and support networks.

Court documents show that, in 2005 to 2007, one of Mr. Noordin's intermediaries established contact with a group of 10 Muslims on the Indonesian island of Sumatra who were concerned about the spread of Christianity there. Mr. Noordin's agent helped to radicalize the Muslim men, persuading them to kill a Christian teacher and plan a series of bombings on nearby tourist sites, the International Crisis Group reported. Indonesian police busted up the group in a 2008 in a raid that uncovered 22 explosive devices.

"The sobering revelation is how easy the transformation can be, if the right ingredients are present," said Sidney Jones, the International Crisis Group's senior adviser.

—Tom Wright contributed to this article.