Indonesia, Democratic Trailblazer
This young democracy holds lessons for other Asian and Muslim nations.
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By PAUL WOLFOWITZ From today's Wall Street Journal Asia.
It's rare when any political leader wins a 60% mandate in a free and fair election, so it's not surprising that commentary on last week's Indonesian election has focused on the personal success of President Susilo Bambang Yudhuyono.
However, Indonesia's success in building democratic institutions in just a short 10 years is even more remarkable and more important in the long run. It is yet another demonstration of the appeal of free institutions, in this case to people with East Asian value systems and to the largest Muslim population in the world. Equally significant, Indonesia's first decade of democracy demonstrates the practical political benefits of democratic institutions which provide for the orderly succession and overall legitimacy of government.
Ten years ago it wasn't hard to find skeptics about whether this democratic experiment could succeed. Some thought the Asian value systems which underlay the indigenous cultures of Indonesia would require rule by a strongman like Suharto. Others questioned whether democracy could succeed in a country where the population was poor and overwhelming Muslim.
Even those who had long hoped for a democratic transition in Indonesia and who cared deeply about the country had difficulty being optimistic. The economy alone was sufficient grounds for pessimism. The financial collapse that brought about Suharto's resignation in 1998 caused GDP to fall by 14% in a single year and pushed more than a quarter of the country's population below the official poverty line.
Beyond that, East Timor's violent separation from Indonesia severely damaged the country's international reputation and even threatened the breakup of the entire country. In a country that stretches across a distance as great as London to Moscow and contains literally dozens of different large ethnic and language groups, it was easy to imagine the whole country unraveling. As if those problems weren't enough, radical Islamist movements were gaining strength and causing bloody clashes between Christians and Muslims in Eastern Indonesia. Then came 9/11 and a serious Al Qaeda threat in Indonesia, including the terrible bombing in Bali in October 2002 which killed more than 200 people, most of them tourists from Australia.
Against that background, it seems hard to believe how well Indonesia is doing today. Per capita incomes have now more than doubled since the time I arrived there as U.S. Ambassador 25 years ago. Most impressively, since 2000 Indonesia's economy has grown at an average of better than 4% a year and even achieved a growth rate of 6% last year, despite the global economic turndown.
The country has turned in a similar record on other fronts. The war in Aceh has ended. Secessionist sentiment elsewhere in the country has largely disappeared, thanks in considerable measure to the decentralization brought about by the democratic transition. And the Indonesian police have recorded some substantial successes against the terrorist groups responsible for the bombings in Bali and elsewhere.
Above all, Indonesia's political process has displayed a remarkable degree of maturity. Holding three consecutive free and fair presidential elections, and scores of parliamentary and regional contests, is one mark of that. So are a number of important legal and Constitutional reforms, including reform of the election process for the presidency and the parliament, restrictions on the role of the military and decentralizing authority to the provinces. Beyond that, Indonesian voters have displayed an impressive degree of common sense, focusing their votes on parties with credible prospects and candidates expected to perform well. For example, the attempt in the recent election to make an issue of the fact that the wife of President Yudhoyono normally appeared without a head covering, or jilbab, apparently failed to gain any traction for his opponents.
Complacency is not in order, however. Ten years is much too short a time for democratic institutions to put down firm roots. And the problems facing the country are still enormous, poverty first among them. That is why President Yudhoyono has placed so much emphasis on increasing economic growth. To do that, more progress will have to be made to reduce corruption, which remains a major deterrent to the foreign investment Indonesia badly needs. The notorious corruption of Suharto's family is a thing of the past. Indeed, when his son's father-in-law was jailed on corruption charges, President Yudhoyono did not intervene, something that would have been unheard of earlier. But the transition has brought a kind of decentralization of corruption, which may be a greater drag on the economy. One thing Indonesia should consider is a special court for handling commercial disputes, like the one Tanzania has created.
Moreover, Islamic fundamentalism could still threaten the country's traditional tolerance in matters of religion. The authorities have shown a disturbing passivity in the face of attacks on churches and on mosques of certain minority sects. And the government has given in to Islamist pressure to place restrictions on one such sect, the Ahmadiyyah. Many Indonesians are fearful that a controversial antipornography bill passed by parliament last year will be used by extremists to restrict legitimate freedom of expression. On the positive side, the trend in recent elections has seen a decline in the influence of overtly Islamist parties. However, that trend could reverse if Indonesia again runs into economic difficulties.
Explanations for Indonesia's overall success during the last decade are diverse and complex, just like the country. Clearly, President Yudhoyon's leadership deserves a great deal of credit. Another factor is the country's tradition of tolerance and respect for the role of women. Indonesia's first two democratically elected presidents were Abdurrahman Wahid, a prominent Muslim leader and advocate of religious tolerance, and Megawati Sukarnoputri, a woman and a passionate advocate of democracy. Neither of their presidencies were very successful, but the values they embodied were important and influential.
Along with that went a variety of civil society groups which managed to thrive despite restrictions from the Suharto regime, particularly the two large national Muslim organizations, Nahdlatul Ulama and Muhammadiyah. The fact that Indonesia's press were financially independent and competitive meant that the country had a strong basis for a free media as soon as censorship restrictions were lifted. Another important influence came from the fact that so many of the country's leaders were educated in part in democratic countries. Significantly, President Yudhoyono himself is a graduate of the U.S. Army's Command and Staff College.
The U.S. has an enormous stake in Indonesia's continued progress. It provides essential stability for the whole of Southeast Asia, a region of more than half a billion people. As an example for other aspiring democracies, especially in Asia, Indonesia's success is important. And if it can continue to progress on a basis of religious tolerance and equal rights for minorities, it can help point the way for other majority Muslim countries.
Indonesians have achieved this success largely on their own. But having chosen a path of freedom, democracy and religious tolerance, they would like to see that recognized more strongly. Although the U.S. came through dramatically for Indonesia when the tsunami struck in December of 2004, Indonesians feel that too often they are ignored, or blamed for the sins of an old regime which they are attempting to put behind them.
The Obama administration has made a good start by including a well-received visit to Indonesia as part of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's first foreign trip. Her commitment there to developing a "comprehensive partnership," an idea first proposed by President Yudhoyono, marks an important step forward in U.S.-Indonesian relations. Although the details remain to be fleshed out, it is important to follow through on that proposal. When President Obama visits Indonesia in November -- where he will receive a hero's welcome -- he will be able to take that cooperation to a new level. He should also use that opportunity to speak forcefully on behalf of the great majority of Indonesians, of all religions, who believe in tolerance and equality for all the country's citizens.
Mr. Wolfowitz, a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, has served as deputy U.S. secretary of defense and U.S. ambassador to Indonesia.
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