The Barisan has been struggling to bounce back. It lacked unity. Every leader aspired to become the Prime MinisterEgo problems led to creation of groups. Aged leaders refused to encourage young and bright partymen. New entrants found themselves unwanted. Love-hate relationship with
The battle for the hearts and minds of young Malaysia has begun with Nurul Izzah Anwar staking claim on a multi-racial Malaysia that allows no room for racism or religious bigotry - two of the most serious issues ailing the nation, not only curbing economic growth but also making the people grossly unhappy.
Hot on her heels is Umno’s Khairy Jamaluddin. The 34-year old Youth chief has been trying to transform himself into a ‘liberal’ of sorts but with mixed success due partly to his own past record of using race-championing to gain popularity but mostly because of his own political inconsistency – even now.
Perhaps to take the wind out of Nurul’s sails after she won wide acclaim with her crystal-clear article The ultimate Malaysian debate: Malaysia or Malaysaja,Khairy trained his sights on Johor rapper Namewee.
As the 30-year Nurul took on ultra-Malay rights group Perkasa and challenged its overt racism, Khairy issued an “acid test” dare to the non-Malays, especially the Chinese, that what was sauce for the goose was sauce for the gander.
But the reaction he garnered was far from the bouquets of roses showered on Nurul, the oldest daughter of Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim.
Instead, the Oxford-trained KJ – as he is also known – got whacked left, right and center by commentators to his Namewee article. Not only did they tear to shreds his logic, they also accused him of reverting to hypocrisy of the older generation Umno leaders.
The real acid test
KJ had accused Namewee of racism because of the lyric in his song You tak baca? Siapa buat Malaysia kaya? But the majority feedback was that the rapper was only stating an economic fact not making a seditious comment unlike the racial slurs hurled by headmistress Siti Inshah, whom Namewee had attacked in his video clip. Siti had likened Indians to dogs and Prime Minister Najib Razak’s special aide Nasir Safar had earlier this year called Indian beggars and Chinese women whores.
Khairy's critics were upset by the way he pontificated without thinking twice that he himself may be closing an eye to all the factors and therefore guilty of the two-faced hypocrisy that former premier Mahathir Mohamd has been frequently accused of.
And in this is the real acid test – not the one he set for the non-Malays in his Namewee article but one that Malaysians have set for Khairy himself. Can a leopard change its spots? Is Khairy - cocooned by his wealth and privileged position - already too ‘old’ to feel the pulse of young Malaysia? Does young Malaysia want to cozy up to him?
Sadly for KJ, the son-in-law of former premier Abdullah Badawi, he is unable to reach out to the older Malaysians either. The above 40s think he is a fake and see him more as a potential talent that cannot be realized because of his temperament and the duality in his nature.
Despite his war chest that some say exceed US$200 million, they rate his chances of reaching the political pinnacle as low and believe it is more likely he will end up a frustrated leader rather than a successful one. Pundits also predict he will make another “major transformation” soon. They see in him a young Mahathir - whom many have scathingly labeled the Father of Opportunism - but without the power of office.
Whether KJ swings to the left, center or right will depend on what is the flavor of the day, but mostly, pundits expect him to swing back to the right. They expect him to become even more ultra-Malay than Ibrahim Ali and more Bolehland than Mahathir because this may be the only way for him to fight his Pakatan peers.
Even in his first test against Nurul, pundits pointed out KJ failed to rise to the high standards demanded by urban Malaysians. It could be he was hampered by the Umno-BN code while Nurul was free to answer only to her beliefs. But the fact that KJ chooses to toe the Umno line is already reflective of his true inclination, they added.
"KJ has said he wants to change Umno-BN from within but this is exactly what Koh Tsu Koon told Gerakan. Are either of them radical, can either men inspire Malaysian youths?" an Umno watcher told Malaysia Chronicle.
In her Malaysia or Malaysaja article, Nurul had chosen to debunk the Ketuanan Melayu or Malay supremacy rhetoric favored by ultra-Malay rights group Perkasa. She point-blank asked Perkasa chief Ibrahim Ali in which part of the Federal Constitution was such a term stated. Her daring has earned her the anger of Umno leaders and Defense minister Zahid Hamidi has already accused her of being a traitor.
Yet, Ibrahim Ali who became a Member of Parliament when Nurul was just six years old declined to accept the invitation to a publicly televised debate even though it would actually provide him with the chance to spout his Malay first-and-only rhetoric to the entire nation.
Who will be the next PM
The jockeying that has begun amongst the second generation for the post of Prime Minister is a sad reflection of Najib’s failure and underscores the belief that his reign will be brief.
Few Malaysians have faith he can change the country and disrespect him for playing good guy with the non-Malays while getting his cousin Hishammuddin Hussein to do the 'dirty work' with the Malays. The latest incident that upset the Chinese community was when Hisham called 29-year old Serdang MP Teo Nie Ching “dirty” and deemed her unfit to enter a Muslim prayer hall.
But who will shine and land the coveted PM’s chair. If the pundits are right, it won’t be Khairy but that doesn't mean that Nurul will have a clear run either.
Remember Bukit Lanjan MP Elizabeth Wong and her photos scandal? The same sort of trumped-up gutter politicking may sabotage Nurul’s career. Her father has already been hit with two sodomy trials. What won’t Umno, and this will include Khairy, do to her?
For Pakatan supporters, they take comfort in that come what may, within their coalition are many young leaders as capable as Nurul. And in the face of such relentless competition, Khairy may be forced to return to the Umno tradition of using racism and religious bigotry to gain political popularity.
At the end of the day, how the chips fall will still depend on Malaysians especially young Malaysians. And this is why the battleground is already being prepared.
No matter who the personalities and whether BN or Pakatan, hopefully young Malaysia will remember to look for consistency, character and integrity and keep demanding that these qualities always prevail in any political or policy decision taken by its leaders. If it continues to resist manipulation and corruption, perhaps the country can finally breathe a bit easier then.
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The battle for the hearts and minds of young Malaysia has begun with Nurul Izzah Anwar staking claim on a multi-racial Malaysia that allows no room for racism or religious bigotry - two of the most serious issues ailing the nation, not only curbing economic growth but also making the people grossly unhappy.
Hot on her heels is Umno’s Khairy Jamaluddin. The 34-year old Youth chief has been trying to transform himself into a ‘liberal’ of sorts but with mixed success due partly to his own past record of using race-championing to gain popularity but mostly because of his own political inconsistency – even now.
Early pie on KJ's face
| Ibrahim Ali: Malay rights not for debate |
As the 30-year Nurul took on ultra-Malay rights group Perkasa and challenged its overt racism, Khairy issued an “acid test” dare to the non-Malays, especially the Chinese, that what was sauce for the goose was sauce for the gander.
But the reaction he garnered was far from the bouquets of roses showered on Nurul, the oldest daughter of Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim.
Instead, the Oxford-trained KJ – as he is also known – got whacked left, right and center by commentators to his Namewee article. Not only did they tear to shreds his logic, they also accused him of reverting to hypocrisy of the older generation Umno leaders.
 |
| Namewee got into trouble with his 'Nah' video |
KJ had accused Namewee of racism because of the lyric in his song You tak baca? Siapa buat Malaysia kaya? But the majority feedback was that the rapper was only stating an economic fact not making a seditious comment unlike the racial slurs hurled by headmistress Siti Inshah, whom Namewee had attacked in his video clip. Siti had likened Indians to dogs and Prime Minister Najib Razak’s special aide Nasir Safar had earlier this year called Indian beggars and Chinese women whores.
Khairy's critics were upset by the way he pontificated without thinking twice that he himself may be closing an eye to all the factors and therefore guilty of the two-faced hypocrisy that former premier Mahathir Mohamd has been frequently accused of.
And in this is the real acid test – not the one he set for the non-Malays in his Namewee article but one that Malaysians have set for Khairy himself. Can a leopard change its spots? Is Khairy - cocooned by his wealth and privileged position - already too ‘old’ to feel the pulse of young Malaysia? Does young Malaysia want to cozy up to him?
Sadly for KJ, the son-in-law of former premier Abdullah Badawi, he is unable to reach out to the older Malaysians either. The above 40s think he is a fake and see him more as a potential talent that cannot be realized because of his temperament and the duality in his nature.
Despite his war chest that some say exceed US$200 million, they rate his chances of reaching the political pinnacle as low and believe it is more likely he will end up a frustrated leader rather than a successful one. Pundits also predict he will make another “major transformation” soon. They see in him a young Mahathir - whom many have scathingly labeled the Father of Opportunism - but without the power of office.
Worse than Ibrahim Ali or Mahathir Mohamd
| Mahathir ruled Malaysia 1981-2003 |
Even in his first test against Nurul, pundits pointed out KJ failed to rise to the high standards demanded by urban Malaysians. It could be he was hampered by the Umno-BN code while Nurul was free to answer only to her beliefs. But the fact that KJ chooses to toe the Umno line is already reflective of his true inclination, they added.
"KJ has said he wants to change Umno-BN from within but this is exactly what Koh Tsu Koon told Gerakan. Are either of them radical, can either men inspire Malaysian youths?" an Umno watcher told Malaysia Chronicle.
In her Malaysia or Malaysaja article, Nurul had chosen to debunk the Ketuanan Melayu or Malay supremacy rhetoric favored by ultra-Malay rights group Perkasa. She point-blank asked Perkasa chief Ibrahim Ali in which part of the Federal Constitution was such a term stated. Her daring has earned her the anger of Umno leaders and Defense minister Zahid Hamidi has already accused her of being a traitor.
Yet, Ibrahim Ali who became a Member of Parliament when Nurul was just six years old declined to accept the invitation to a publicly televised debate even though it would actually provide him with the chance to spout his Malay first-and-only rhetoric to the entire nation.
| Pakatan's Nurul |
The jockeying that has begun amongst the second generation for the post of Prime Minister is a sad reflection of Najib’s failure and underscores the belief that his reign will be brief.
Few Malaysians have faith he can change the country and disrespect him for playing good guy with the non-Malays while getting his cousin Hishammuddin Hussein to do the 'dirty work' with the Malays. The latest incident that upset the Chinese community was when Hisham called 29-year old Serdang MP Teo Nie Ching “dirty” and deemed her unfit to enter a Muslim prayer hall.
But who will shine and land the coveted PM’s chair. If the pundits are right, it won’t be Khairy but that doesn't mean that Nurul will have a clear run either.
| Umno's Khairy |
For Pakatan supporters, they take comfort in that come what may, within their coalition are many young leaders as capable as Nurul. And in the face of such relentless competition, Khairy may be forced to return to the Umno tradition of using racism and religious bigotry to gain political popularity.
At the end of the day, how the chips fall will still depend on Malaysians especially young Malaysians. And this is why the battleground is already being prepared.
No matter who the personalities and whether BN or Pakatan, hopefully young Malaysia will remember to look for consistency, character and integrity and keep demanding that these qualities always prevail in any political or policy decision taken by its leaders. If it continues to resist manipulation and corruption, perhaps the country can finally breathe a bit easier then.
Related Stories:
Namewee - the Gen Y test for far Umno will push racism to win
M'sia at a crossroad: Immoral Soi Lek slammed over Namewee..
Undaunted Namewee back to work, new project NASI LEMAK 2.0...
KJ upset with Namewee's You tak baca? Siapa buat Malaysia kaya ...
Malays not sensitive, let Namewee be a lesson to all : Khairy Jamaluddin
VIDEO Namewee gives statement to police on 'Nah!' video
VIDEO DPM: Action against those who incite uneasiness, like Namewee
Namewee's headmistress video: Umno now 'racializing' racism
Soi Lek says Namewee irresponsible, has to ‘face the music'
Nothing seditious in Namewee's clip on Siti Inshah :Kit Siang
Mahathir's latest racist blast annoying not scary, faces irrelevancy
Time for Najib to haul up Ibrahim Ali for inciting racial tensions...
Police probing Namewee for sedition over 'Nah' video clip..
Meritocracy revisited : Mahathir
Why Najib talks like a PM, but walks and acts like Umno
Poll: 45% of Malays, 55% of Chinese unhappy with Umno...
If Mais charges Teo, it shd also summon Fatwa Council :Mahfuz..
Ibrahim Ali slammed for giving Islam an ugly face
Nik Aziz: Nothing wrong with inviting Teo into surau..
Asri: Non-Muslims allowed to enter mosques from Prophet's days...
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Saya Bukan Mempertahankan YB Teo Nie Ching - Dr Asri
Isu Surau Al-Huda — Teo Nie Ching
Ibrahim Ali demands action against Teo over surau ...
S'gor Sultan upset: Mais to warn DAP's Teo, takes over surau...
PM's zero tolerance for racism should start with Utusan : Kit Siang...
Najib pledeges zero tolerance for racism but will he walk the talk...
Umno race-religious card to deflect Malays from RM52bil scandal...
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Kenny Gan, Malaysia Chronicle
The 13th general election will be the most watched and anxiously awaited event in the annals of Malaysian political history. Previous general elections have been tame affairs where the result was never in doubt; it was only a matter of how many seats the opposition could wrest away from BN. But the next election will be different as BN faces a real threat of losing power to a united opposition.
Malaysian politics has always been a one party system with the ruling coalition facing no creditable challenges from a fragmented opposition. But with the rise of Pakatan Rakyat a nascent two party system has evolved ending the domination of one party which allowed it to perpetrate all manner of abuses and corruption.
To be sure, this is not the first time that the opposition parties have grouped together to challenge BN. In the 1990 general election, Tengku Razaleigh’s Semangat 46 forged a coalition with other opposition parties and in 1999 DAP, PAS and Keadilan formed Barisan Alternatif to take advantage of public revulsion over Mahathir’s cruel treatment of Anwar.
But these opposition pacts did not even manage to deny BN its customary two-thirds majority. They failed because the social forces at that time were just not in their favour. The minorities were controlled by racial and religious fears and the mindset of the people then could not accept being governed by any coalition other than BN.
Things are certainly different now. Never before has there been such a nexus of events to influence the political destiny of the country. The coming together of the opposition, the dissipation of racial and religious fears, the loss of minority votes, the sea change in mindset, the political awakening of Sabah and Sarawak and yet another sodomy outrage on Anwar have coalesced into the perfect storm to oust BN.
Although chances to unseat BN have never been better one should not be mistaken into thinking that ousting the behemoth is easy or inevitable. In Malaysia there is no such thing as free and fair elections. The playing field is wholly tilted to BN which has almost unlimited funds and controls the mass media and all the levers of power which it shamelessly uses to its advantage. If these advantages are not enough a little help from postal votes and phantom voters are in order.
There are 222 parliament seats so a party winning 112 seats gains a simple majority to form the government with the other side ending up with 110 seats. Of course such a slim majority is not workable in practice as a single defection will lose the majority.
To gain a reasonable majority of say 20 seats, PR would need to win 121 seats with BN ending up with 101 seats. After the 2008 general election, PR held 83 parliament seats to BN’s 139. This means PR must retain all the seats it won in 2008 plus an additional 38 seats. On the surface this looks rather optimistic.
But numbers can be deceptive. Our election system is based on “first past the post” which means that a win by 1 vote is still a win. Hence a small swing in vote share can result in a large number of seats changing hands. An alternative system is proportional representation where seat allocation is based on the proportion of votes secured but the disadvantage of such a system is that it tends to result in weak governments.
After the 2008 election there were many marginal seats won by both sides which could change hands with just a small swing in voter support. Based on data on marginal seats sourced from Malaysiakini, a 6% swing to PR will result in PR winning 112 seats to BN’s 110 but this is too weak to govern, a 7% swing means PR having 118 to BN’s 104 which is still very dicey so an 8% swing is needed to give PR 125 seats to BN’s 97 seats with a workable majority of 28 seats.
An overall 8% swing is a large swing and this must come on the back of the 2008 swing against BN. To put this in perspective the overall swing to and against BN in past general elections are as follows: (sourced from The Star)
1995 - 11.8% swing to BN due to Dr. M's liberalization policies
1999 - 8.7% swing to opposition due to Anwar factor
2004 - 7.4% swing to BN due to new PM Badawi
2008 - 10.7% swing to opposition due to tsunami.
So an 8% swing is within the range of possibility but the crux is that swings have alternated between BN and opposition from election to election. Since the last election saw a swing of 10.7% to the opposition an additional 8% swing in the same direction seems unlikely or very optimistic due to a limit in fence sitters. Even more ominous, a mere 1.2% swing to BN will see BN regaining its two-thirds majority. Is BN safe in Putrajaya after all?
The Keys to Putrajaya
The key to break this tyranny of numbers is Sabah and Sarawak. To put it another way, Sabah and Sarawak hold the keys to Putrajaya.
In the above analysis we have assumed that the voting pattern in the two East Malaysian states will not differ greatly from 2008 subject to a moderate percentage swing. In 2008 and the opposition only managed to capture only a single seat each in Sabah and Sarawak.
But Sabah and Sarawak are experiencing a political awakening in the wake of the 2008 tsunami. The notion of the two states being “fixed deposits” for BN is set to be seriously challenged. The loss of BN’s stronghold Sibu in a by-election is a signal that political changes are afoot in Sarawak. The mood in Sabah against the federal government is anger at the hordes of illegal immigrants and Sabah is ripe for political change.
Hence we should treat Sabah and Sarawak differently on the basis that their normal voting pattern is going to be upset from the usual trend. Sabah has 26 parliament seats and Sarawak 31, numbers which are disproportionate to their population.
The number of seats which PR can capture in these two states varies between political analysts but even conservative estimates indicate that both these states are likely to lose at least one-third of their seats to PR. The coming Sarawak state election will give a strong pointer. If BN loses its two-thirds majority in the state assembly it spells trouble for BN in the next general election.
If we assume that PR can capture 10 seats in Sabah and 12 seats in Sarawak and adding these to PR’s 81 Peninsula seats in 2008, this brings the total to 103. From the table of BN’s marginal seats and excluding those seats in Sabah and Sarawak, we find that a 4% swing will yield PR an additional 14 seats while a 5% swing will yield another 19 seats in the Peninsula.
Crunching the numbers this means that a 4% swing will give total of 117 seats for PR against BN’s 105, a majority of 12 which is probably too thin to govern as BN will waste no time in toppling the government with wheelbarrows of money and attacks with their cohorts in the civil service. However a 5% swing yields a total of 122 seats for PR and 100 seats for BN with a majority of 22, not great but workable giving PR time consolidate its position by making much needed changes to the police, judiciary MACC and other enforcement divisions.
A 5% swing is still significant but begins to look more attainable although we must remember that this must come on the back of a 10.7% swing in 2008 in the same direction. The next question is, “Will there be enough fence sitters to execute the swing given that a large number have already swung away from BN in 2008?”
Politics in Malaysia is characterized by hard core supporters and fence sitters. These terms merit some description.
Fence sitters may be best understood by distinguishing them from hard core supporters. Both BN and PR have their flock of hard core supporters who will vote for their party come hell or high water. No amount of negative news or shameful acts attributed to the party they support will make any difference to their vote, not even fielding a disbarred lawyer in a by-election.
Fence sitters are not strongly aligned to any party. Their vote may go either way depending on how they weigh the parties. They are usually well read, well informed from many sources of information and their views are shaped by current events, exposes, scandals and perception of injustice or unfairness. They will vote for the better party or failing that, the lesser devil.
Every partisan action by the police or MACC, every controversial court decision, every racist outburst, every unfair application of the law and every crime that goes unpunished means BN pushes some fences sitters off to PR’s side.
To BN’s great shame it has learned nothing from the 2008 tsunami but has continued to offend the sensibilities of fence sitters left, right and centre. It goes without saying that PR will win the fence sitters’ battle.
Among the Malays there appear to be few fence sitters. This is why PR finds it hard to increase its Malay vote share. On the other hand even overt racism and ultra nationalism do little to enlarge Umno’s Malay base. The Malay ground is very hard to shift either way but a little means a lot due to their demography.
Analysis of BN’s Malay vote share in past general elections show 49% in 1999 due to the Anwar crisis, 59.1% in 2004 due to the new PM factor (or because Mahathir was gone) and 55% in 2008. Umno’s baseline Malay support appears to be about 55% and it can shift up or down by about 5%. This means that in 2008 it may have declined down to it base support level and it possible to shift further to PR by a further of 5%.
But the possibility is not the deed as there must be something to shift the Malay ground. Is there any likelihood of a cataclysmic event which will swing the Malay vote away from BN as what happened in 1999? Yes, there is - Anwar’s sodomy II which is almost certain to end with his imprisonment.
A more drastic consequence of the Malay vote falling below 50% with the minority votes with PR is that BN will lose all the non-Malay majority seats and mixed seats in the Peninsula while all the Malay majority seats will be up for grabs thus giving PR an easy victory.
The Chinese community can be considered to be won by PR with up to 80% support in by-elections. Comparing this with the 65% Chinese support for the opposition in 2008 it can be seen that there is considerable latitude for further swing from the 2008 baseline.
It is generally believed that the Indian community voted overwhelmingly against BN in 2008 but the numbers show that Indian support for BN was split down the middle at 48%. This was of course a huge swing from their normal 80% support level. Right now the Indian vote is ambivalent and still split down the middle although by-elections have detected a slight drift back to BN. In the Hulu Selangor by-election BN managed to capture 55% of the Indian vote.
It is regrettable that the Indians who claim to be the most marginalized race cannot stand with the Chinese in getting rid of a regime which is responsible for their economic under performance. In ousting BN all races are important; there are many mixed seats which would be won easily if the Indians vote with the Chinese. Hindraf and their offshoot HRP’s incessant attacks on PR in their ill-advised quest for political power has confused the Indians. The lack of a charismatic Indian leader in PR has not helped.
So what sort of overall swing from the 2008 baseline can be realistically expected? Assuming that the Anwar sodomy factor will result in a 4% swing to BN among the Malays, a 75% support level from the Chinese (10% swing) and a 0% swing from the Indians (hopefully no negative swing) and basing on a demography of 66% Malay, 26% Chinese and 8% Indian, the overall swing can be calculated as 5.24%.
This is just sufficient to push PR into Putrajaya with a practical majority to govern. Of course this is based on the assumption that BN will dig their own grave by sticking Anwar in prison on a parody of seeking justice for a consensual sodomy victim and that the Indians do not help to perpetuate a system which has sidelined them.
Why did I choose 4% for the Malay swing? As can be seen this number is crucial as it will make or break PR’s bid for Putrajaya. It is not because ‘4’ sounds like ‘death’ in Chinese dialects to signal the death of BN. In 1999 Malay support for BN dropped 6% but there appears to be less anger now. 4% is within the estimated 5% of Malay fence sitters. Yes, it may well be 1% or 2% but I cannot believe that Malays are much less compassionate now over injustice and humiliation heaped on a popular leader. The 4% swing reflects not just the Anwar factor but also disgust for Umno’s racism, chauvinism, bigotry, corruption, institutional abuse and double standards. It is a reasonable figure and my purpose is to show that BN can be ousted with reasonable assumptions.
It is clear that the 13th general election will be a battle for the Malay vote. Only the Malays themselves can determine who governs them. There are no races acting as kingmakers.
The road to Putrajaya is long and arduous so PR must stay focused and cohesive. There is no room for petty squabbling or in-fighting. Unseating BN with their absolute control of money, media and machinery is hard even with the opposition coalition at its optimum. Anything less and BN may even gain back their two-thirds majority instead of being ousted.
Along the way PR will be helped by young voters entering the electoral rolls who are repelled by BN’s corruption, abuses and racism, wider access to online sources of information, increasing urbanization of rural areas, rising cost of living against depreciation of real income and BN’s continuing sandals. Although PR supporters are anxious to kick out BN more time may actually be favourable to PR.
For too long has Malaysia suffered under the domination of one party and a race based political system with a government that uses corruption as its lifeblood and racial discrimination as a state policy. It is time for a new dawn for Malaysia, a new government that is inclusive, pluralistic and capable of driving Malaysia to new heights without the baggage of the past.
The 13th general election will be the most watched and anxiously awaited event in the annals of Malaysian political history. Previous general elections have been tame affairs where the result was never in doubt; it was only a matter of how many seats the opposition could wrest away from BN. But the next election will be different as BN faces a real threat of losing power to a united opposition.
Malaysian politics has always been a one party system with the ruling coalition facing no creditable challenges from a fragmented opposition. But with the rise of Pakatan Rakyat a nascent two party system has evolved ending the domination of one party which allowed it to perpetrate all manner of abuses and corruption.
To be sure, this is not the first time that the opposition parties have grouped together to challenge BN. In the 1990 general election, Tengku Razaleigh’s Semangat 46 forged a coalition with other opposition parties and in 1999 DAP, PAS and Keadilan formed Barisan Alternatif to take advantage of public revulsion over Mahathir’s cruel treatment of Anwar.
But these opposition pacts did not even manage to deny BN its customary two-thirds majority. They failed because the social forces at that time were just not in their favour. The minorities were controlled by racial and religious fears and the mindset of the people then could not accept being governed by any coalition other than BN.
Things are certainly different now. Never before has there been such a nexus of events to influence the political destiny of the country. The coming together of the opposition, the dissipation of racial and religious fears, the loss of minority votes, the sea change in mindset, the political awakening of Sabah and Sarawak and yet another sodomy outrage on Anwar have coalesced into the perfect storm to oust BN.
The Tyranny of Numbers
Although chances to unseat BN have never been better one should not be mistaken into thinking that ousting the behemoth is easy or inevitable. In Malaysia there is no such thing as free and fair elections. The playing field is wholly tilted to BN which has almost unlimited funds and controls the mass media and all the levers of power which it shamelessly uses to its advantage. If these advantages are not enough a little help from postal votes and phantom voters are in order.
There are 222 parliament seats so a party winning 112 seats gains a simple majority to form the government with the other side ending up with 110 seats. Of course such a slim majority is not workable in practice as a single defection will lose the majority.
To gain a reasonable majority of say 20 seats, PR would need to win 121 seats with BN ending up with 101 seats. After the 2008 general election, PR held 83 parliament seats to BN’s 139. This means PR must retain all the seats it won in 2008 plus an additional 38 seats. On the surface this looks rather optimistic.
But numbers can be deceptive. Our election system is based on “first past the post” which means that a win by 1 vote is still a win. Hence a small swing in vote share can result in a large number of seats changing hands. An alternative system is proportional representation where seat allocation is based on the proportion of votes secured but the disadvantage of such a system is that it tends to result in weak governments.
After the 2008 election there were many marginal seats won by both sides which could change hands with just a small swing in voter support. Based on data on marginal seats sourced from Malaysiakini, a 6% swing to PR will result in PR winning 112 seats to BN’s 110 but this is too weak to govern, a 7% swing means PR having 118 to BN’s 104 which is still very dicey so an 8% swing is needed to give PR 125 seats to BN’s 97 seats with a workable majority of 28 seats.
An overall 8% swing is a large swing and this must come on the back of the 2008 swing against BN. To put this in perspective the overall swing to and against BN in past general elections are as follows: (sourced from The Star)
1995 - 11.8% swing to BN due to Dr. M's liberalization policies
1999 - 8.7% swing to opposition due to Anwar factor
2004 - 7.4% swing to BN due to new PM Badawi
2008 - 10.7% swing to opposition due to tsunami.
So an 8% swing is within the range of possibility but the crux is that swings have alternated between BN and opposition from election to election. Since the last election saw a swing of 10.7% to the opposition an additional 8% swing in the same direction seems unlikely or very optimistic due to a limit in fence sitters. Even more ominous, a mere 1.2% swing to BN will see BN regaining its two-thirds majority. Is BN safe in Putrajaya after all?
The Keys to Putrajaya
The key to break this tyranny of numbers is Sabah and Sarawak. To put it another way, Sabah and Sarawak hold the keys to Putrajaya.
In the above analysis we have assumed that the voting pattern in the two East Malaysian states will not differ greatly from 2008 subject to a moderate percentage swing. In 2008 and the opposition only managed to capture only a single seat each in Sabah and Sarawak.
But Sabah and Sarawak are experiencing a political awakening in the wake of the 2008 tsunami. The notion of the two states being “fixed deposits” for BN is set to be seriously challenged. The loss of BN’s stronghold Sibu in a by-election is a signal that political changes are afoot in Sarawak. The mood in Sabah against the federal government is anger at the hordes of illegal immigrants and Sabah is ripe for political change.
Hence we should treat Sabah and Sarawak differently on the basis that their normal voting pattern is going to be upset from the usual trend. Sabah has 26 parliament seats and Sarawak 31, numbers which are disproportionate to their population.
The number of seats which PR can capture in these two states varies between political analysts but even conservative estimates indicate that both these states are likely to lose at least one-third of their seats to PR. The coming Sarawak state election will give a strong pointer. If BN loses its two-thirds majority in the state assembly it spells trouble for BN in the next general election.
If we assume that PR can capture 10 seats in Sabah and 12 seats in Sarawak and adding these to PR’s 81 Peninsula seats in 2008, this brings the total to 103. From the table of BN’s marginal seats and excluding those seats in Sabah and Sarawak, we find that a 4% swing will yield PR an additional 14 seats while a 5% swing will yield another 19 seats in the Peninsula.
Crunching the numbers this means that a 4% swing will give total of 117 seats for PR against BN’s 105, a majority of 12 which is probably too thin to govern as BN will waste no time in toppling the government with wheelbarrows of money and attacks with their cohorts in the civil service. However a 5% swing yields a total of 122 seats for PR and 100 seats for BN with a majority of 22, not great but workable giving PR time consolidate its position by making much needed changes to the police, judiciary MACC and other enforcement divisions.
A 5% swing is still significant but begins to look more attainable although we must remember that this must come on the back of a 10.7% swing in 2008 in the same direction. The next question is, “Will there be enough fence sitters to execute the swing given that a large number have already swung away from BN in 2008?”
Hard Core Supporters and Fence Sitters
Politics in Malaysia is characterized by hard core supporters and fence sitters. These terms merit some description.
Fence sitters may be best understood by distinguishing them from hard core supporters. Both BN and PR have their flock of hard core supporters who will vote for their party come hell or high water. No amount of negative news or shameful acts attributed to the party they support will make any difference to their vote, not even fielding a disbarred lawyer in a by-election.
Fence sitters are not strongly aligned to any party. Their vote may go either way depending on how they weigh the parties. They are usually well read, well informed from many sources of information and their views are shaped by current events, exposes, scandals and perception of injustice or unfairness. They will vote for the better party or failing that, the lesser devil.
Every partisan action by the police or MACC, every controversial court decision, every racist outburst, every unfair application of the law and every crime that goes unpunished means BN pushes some fences sitters off to PR’s side.
To BN’s great shame it has learned nothing from the 2008 tsunami but has continued to offend the sensibilities of fence sitters left, right and centre. It goes without saying that PR will win the fence sitters’ battle.
The Racial Battleground
Among the Malays there appear to be few fence sitters. This is why PR finds it hard to increase its Malay vote share. On the other hand even overt racism and ultra nationalism do little to enlarge Umno’s Malay base. The Malay ground is very hard to shift either way but a little means a lot due to their demography.
Analysis of BN’s Malay vote share in past general elections show 49% in 1999 due to the Anwar crisis, 59.1% in 2004 due to the new PM factor (or because Mahathir was gone) and 55% in 2008. Umno’s baseline Malay support appears to be about 55% and it can shift up or down by about 5%. This means that in 2008 it may have declined down to it base support level and it possible to shift further to PR by a further of 5%.
But the possibility is not the deed as there must be something to shift the Malay ground. Is there any likelihood of a cataclysmic event which will swing the Malay vote away from BN as what happened in 1999? Yes, there is - Anwar’s sodomy II which is almost certain to end with his imprisonment.
A more drastic consequence of the Malay vote falling below 50% with the minority votes with PR is that BN will lose all the non-Malay majority seats and mixed seats in the Peninsula while all the Malay majority seats will be up for grabs thus giving PR an easy victory.
The Chinese community can be considered to be won by PR with up to 80% support in by-elections. Comparing this with the 65% Chinese support for the opposition in 2008 it can be seen that there is considerable latitude for further swing from the 2008 baseline.
It is generally believed that the Indian community voted overwhelmingly against BN in 2008 but the numbers show that Indian support for BN was split down the middle at 48%. This was of course a huge swing from their normal 80% support level. Right now the Indian vote is ambivalent and still split down the middle although by-elections have detected a slight drift back to BN. In the Hulu Selangor by-election BN managed to capture 55% of the Indian vote.
It is regrettable that the Indians who claim to be the most marginalized race cannot stand with the Chinese in getting rid of a regime which is responsible for their economic under performance. In ousting BN all races are important; there are many mixed seats which would be won easily if the Indians vote with the Chinese. Hindraf and their offshoot HRP’s incessant attacks on PR in their ill-advised quest for political power has confused the Indians. The lack of a charismatic Indian leader in PR has not helped.
The Final Analysis
So what sort of overall swing from the 2008 baseline can be realistically expected? Assuming that the Anwar sodomy factor will result in a 4% swing to BN among the Malays, a 75% support level from the Chinese (10% swing) and a 0% swing from the Indians (hopefully no negative swing) and basing on a demography of 66% Malay, 26% Chinese and 8% Indian, the overall swing can be calculated as 5.24%.
This is just sufficient to push PR into Putrajaya with a practical majority to govern. Of course this is based on the assumption that BN will dig their own grave by sticking Anwar in prison on a parody of seeking justice for a consensual sodomy victim and that the Indians do not help to perpetuate a system which has sidelined them.
Why did I choose 4% for the Malay swing? As can be seen this number is crucial as it will make or break PR’s bid for Putrajaya. It is not because ‘4’ sounds like ‘death’ in Chinese dialects to signal the death of BN. In 1999 Malay support for BN dropped 6% but there appears to be less anger now. 4% is within the estimated 5% of Malay fence sitters. Yes, it may well be 1% or 2% but I cannot believe that Malays are much less compassionate now over injustice and humiliation heaped on a popular leader. The 4% swing reflects not just the Anwar factor but also disgust for Umno’s racism, chauvinism, bigotry, corruption, institutional abuse and double standards. It is a reasonable figure and my purpose is to show that BN can be ousted with reasonable assumptions.
It is clear that the 13th general election will be a battle for the Malay vote. Only the Malays themselves can determine who governs them. There are no races acting as kingmakers.
A New Dawn for Malaysia
The road to Putrajaya is long and arduous so PR must stay focused and cohesive. There is no room for petty squabbling or in-fighting. Unseating BN with their absolute control of money, media and machinery is hard even with the opposition coalition at its optimum. Anything less and BN may even gain back their two-thirds majority instead of being ousted.
Along the way PR will be helped by young voters entering the electoral rolls who are repelled by BN’s corruption, abuses and racism, wider access to online sources of information, increasing urbanization of rural areas, rising cost of living against depreciation of real income and BN’s continuing sandals. Although PR supporters are anxious to kick out BN more time may actually be favourable to PR.
For too long has Malaysia suffered under the domination of one party and a race based political system with a government that uses corruption as its lifeblood and racial discrimination as a state policy. It is time for a new dawn for Malaysia, a new government that is inclusive, pluralistic and capable of driving Malaysia to new heights without the baggage of the past.
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