Pritish Nandy, 19 October 2009, 06:14 PM IST
The Maharashtra elections are over. We await the results. Exit polls are unanimous. They say the coalition in power will return. In short, Congress is here to stay. Conventional wisdom, on the other hand, says people will vote for a change. This means the Sena may still come to power, despite the BJP’s deathwish and the MNS. But exit polls are often wrong and people ignore conventional wisdom. Everything blanks out when you are in front of the EVM. Your deepest fears suddenly surface before you push the button. That’s when you take a honest call. It no longer matters who promised you what. You vote for the person you think can make a difference to your life. That’s democracy. It’s also your moment of supreme honesty.
Yet everything that leads to it is totally fake. The lofty election promises, almost all of them just empty rhetoric. The dirty wheeling dealing that goes on till the last moment. The trading in nominations. The business houses that pay to get their men into critical positions. The cash raised by threat and extortion to buy crowds, manage vote banks, woo the Independents.
In that one moment, when you and I push the EVM button, we are making several choices. Political, ethical, personal. Curiously, on all of them, we compromise. We vote for candidates we do not like because we think they are the best of a bad lot. We endorse parties we don’t trust because we are fed up with the rascals in power. We support those who we think can offer us some semblance of stability in a world that’s becoming increasingly scary. In other words, we vote for everything but the person who’s to represent us. Many of us, in fact, vote blind. We never see the person we are voting for since candidates have long stopped going home to home, seeking votes. Now their thugs go out and manipulate the vote banks.
In fact, humility has long vanished from election rhetoric. So has austerity, even though we speak so much about it. Candidates stitch their campaign wear from fancy couturiers. The best photographers are hired to take mug shots for posters. Psephologists advise them on voting patterns so that candidates know how to behave in front of which group, what language to speak, what promises to make, who to praise and who to run down. Then there are the professional agencies who hire out crowds to different political parties. The same people turn out in different rallies, dressed differently, shouting different slogans, praising the candidate they are paid by and running down the others. The next day, they are elsewhere doing exactly the opposite. Political loyalties here are bought on daily wages. So are celebrity campaigners.
There was a time when you and I could sidestep all this and say, We’re not going to be a part of this sham. We don’t like any of these guys and we’re not going to vote for them. Being part of a democracy doesn’t force us to choose between Tweedledee and Tweedledum. We either make a serious, informed, political choice or stay away till good candidates are fielded. If we did that, parties will be forced to choose decent people. Or we could insist on a NOTA button just to point out that None Of The Above deserves our vote. If NOTA gets more votes than the winning candidate, a re-poll would be the obvious option. And parties will have no choice but to field better people. But it’s fashionable today to deride those who don’t vote. NGOs, the media, thought leaders are all exhorting us to go out and make a choice many of us don’t want to. They insist that democracy means casting your vote. Whereas, in truth, not voting is as much a political choice.
As voters become bored, jaded, fed up with the options available, we must devise new ways and means to force political parties to field better people. Every election sees deteriorating standards. The education level of candidates may go up. Gender prejudices may yield way. They may become younger, smarter, brasher. They may dress better, speak a cannier political language but can they give us a better quality of politics, better standards of integrity and performance? Do they make us proud of them? That’s the question we must ask ourselves before we push the button.
Our last bunch of winners increased their assets by a staggering 339%. That’s more than you and I did. That’s more than India did. And no, we are not counting their undeclared loot. There’s a Sena guy whose assets jumped 9564%, a CPM guy whose assets grew 5981%, a MNS guy whose assets grew 3625%, a Congressman whose assets grew 3073% and a BJP guy whose assets rose by 2122%. So pretty much everyone shared the loot while we silly people kept arguing over who deserves to win.
By Subramaniam Bharathy
I say wishful thinking, because what we have staring at us in our face is a clean BN win, with or without HRP participation. Yet some like Kgen seem not to be able to see this simple fact. The only way that PKR can win this election is if they put up a real credible candidate like Zaid Ibrahim and get a strong endorsement from a strong grassroots Indian organization like the Human Rights Party. Any other way, no one can stop a BN win.
That this cannot be seen simply amounts to wishful thinking.
Let me explain: The electorate was 63,600 strong in 2008 March. The number of people who voted on that fateful day was 47,600. Let us assume for the purpose of this analysis that the 25% who did not vote on that day were evenly spread between the Malays, Chinese and Indians. There were some 1500 spoilt votes. Given that the BN candidate was Indian, it is likely that most who spoilt their votes that day would have been Malay voters, because of their indifference. The Chinese and Indian voters were all charged up to vote out UMNO.
If 53% of the voters on that day were Malay, and 1500 votes were spoilt it would mean 23,700 Malay voters voted on that day. 13,300 Chinese and 9,000 Indians also voted that day. G. Palanivel of MIC received 22,979 votes that day. His opponent the late Dr Zainal Abidin Ahmad (may his soul RIP) of PKR got 23,177 votes. Almost even.
It would be reasonable to say that at least 60-70% of the votes of the Indians went to PKR or 5,500 to 6,300 Indian votes went to PKR. And it would also be reasonable to say that at least 70-80% of the Chinese votes went to PKR or 9,200 to 10,300 votes. So the non Malay votes that went to PKR were from 14,700 to 16,600.
That means PKR only received 6,500 to 8,400 Malay votes. Of the votes PKR received that day only 28% to 36% were Malays votes. 40-45% of the votes they received were Chinese votes and 20 – 32% of the votes were Indian votes.
If there is going to be a swing in the votes it would not be too unreasonable to assume that the swing will come from both the Malay as well the Indian votes and they will be both away from PR. The Chinese votes are solidly anti-establishment and will remain with PR.
UMNO will play up the Malay insecurity feelings of losing out to the non-Malays – a theme it has begun playing up through Perkasa. What with Muhiyddin Yassin leading the by- election campaign in Hulu Selangor. PKR does not have much to go on except Anwar’s sodomy case this time around. The rural voters anyway are the backbone for UMNO and rural Malays are not the forte of PKR. That is why PKR received so few Malay votes the last time in rural Hulu Selangor. So after all the plusses and minuses, in our ethnocentric system, UMNO will come out ahead of PKR for the Malay votes compared to the 2008 elections.
The Indian vote swing will be even more significant as there is a growing disenchantment among the Indian voters that PR has done a number on them in the last two years just like UMNO did in the preceding half century. With the Deputy President of MIC who is the present candidate coupled with the ethnocentric nature of our politics and in the absence of a countervailing force like an endorsement from Hindraf for PR, the swing of Indian votes away from PR is inevitable. There is not much difference between the devil and the deep blue sea from the Indian poor standpoint– both ways you will die, but which is the less painful way, will be the decision criteria.
This trend was already set in Bagan Pinang, now the same will happen in Hulu Selangor. The Indians in PR will not be able to reverse that. They could not do much in Bagan Pinang. A PR win will require no less than a clear endorsement from the Human Rights Party for the Indian votes to keep them from sliding away to BN.
So what do you have – a PR victory? A PR victory that HRP is about to spoil?
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