Making his first appearance in Bagan Pinang last night, called his UMNO BARISAN racists, hypocrites
It caused massive traffic congestion to the usually quiet semi-rural residential area where the ceramah was held at. People from all races, men, women and children, began showing up as early as 8pm despite knowing that the PKR de facto leader was only scheduled to arrive 1˝ hours later.
As time went, the density of the crowd was almost to the point of absurdity. The queue was five minutes just to walk five steps forward, and the cars with plate numbers from all over the country parked by the side of the narrow street made it more difficult for PR workers-cum-traffic marshals to help reduce the congestion.But it all seemed worth it for them as upon Anwar's arrival on the stump, the charismatic leader, through a mixture of humour and fierceness, brought palpable energy to the crowd. In just seconds, the slightly dull ambience transformed into a TURBOR CHARGED TSUNAMI frenzy BACK.
"Who is the traitor to the Malays? Long have the have-nots suffered at the hands of the few rich elite in the form of Umno politicians," said Anwar, followed by thunderous applause from the angered crowd.
"The poor Malays are robbed in broad daylight, government contracts are awarded to crony companies, we see poor Malays, Chinese, Indian everywhere throughout all BN governed states, and they call me a traitor?" added Anwar.
Anyway, so that no one can accuse me of chickening out, I shall predict the by-election result for tomorrow. And my crystal ball says to go with the Indians. So it shall be PAS within a 1,000 or so vote majority.
NO HOLDS BARRED
Raja Petra Kamarudin
My Chinese ‘underworld’ connections tell me that Umno is going to win the Bagan Pinang by-election tomorrow. But it is going to be within only a 1,000-vote majority, they tell me.
My Indian ‘underworld’ connections say this is rubbish. They assure me that PAS is going to win, but still within only a 1,000-vote majority.
My Malay ‘underworld’ connections say they will give me their prediction tomorrow night once the results are announced. At this stage they don’t know who is going to win but they do agree with both the Chinese and Indians -- in that the majority is going to be within only 1,000 votes.
Shit! Thus far I have been able to predict the election results with not too much trouble. In February 2008, I was able to predict that the opposition will win between 80 to 100 parliament seats and will grab five states in the March general election. I could even name the five states. And my predictions for the by-elections since March 2008 have also been almost spot-on, sometimes out by a mere 100 votes or so. But this Bagan Pinang by-election is a real teaser.
Anyway, so that no one can accuse me of chickening out, I shall predict the by-election result for tomorrow. And my crystal ball says to go with the Indians. So it shall be PAS within a 1,000 or so vote majority.
I just hope the Bagan Pinang voters do not disappoint me and break my thus far perfect score. But I suppose one can’t always be right.
I took lunch a few miles off the hotel/condos/apartment main streets of PD yesterday and happy to report the bulk of Chinese voters WILL vote PAS. Raja Petra nailed it as far as where the Indian votes will go. To me, there is a split down the middle amongst our Indian brethren, which doesn't help the cause of PAS candidate does it ?
With the entire community being made political pawns, one would think there would be a healthy sway to Pakatan Rakyat but it wasn't apparent to me looking at the vast numbers of MIC colours in and around the streets of PD.
Soon after Fri prayers, I asked an elderly Malay gentleman "Pakcik undi siapa ?" and got a smirk and a sly smile which I take as a positive sign - one PAS vote in amongst a very partisan UMNO stronghold - is what I like to think.
That said, I am encourage to think that a PAS victory is possible though I was hesitant to think it possible before I read this post. The mood on the ground is merry which, I put down to the residents getting their share of their RM$200-300, courtesy of UMNO, with promises of more to come.
The evening beckons, take care all.
Casper
written by jeevy
Analysis for Bagan Pinang by election
Jumlah Pengundi adalah 13664
Turn out=85%=11614(85.0%of13664)
( translates to )
Chinese80%=8.77%(80.0%of10.96)
( translates to )
Indians60%=12.44%(60%of20.74)
( translates to )
Malays43%=26.99%(44%of62.77)
Others35%=1.94%(35%of5.54)
Total 50.14%
So 50.14%of11614=5824Votes for Pas candidate
BN's votes 11614-5824=5791
PAS Majority5824-579133