Appointing Muhyiddin Yassin, seen as the man contributing to Abdullah’s downfall, as election operation manager and discouraging Khairy Jamaluddin from campaigning had agitated the rifts, but it was Mahathir’s presence that reopened the wound.
By Bridget Welsh
The results are in, and the 2-1 victory shows that both Pakatan Rakyat and Barisan Nasional held onto their original seats. But the final tallies do not suggest a status quo. Far from it.tengku razaleigh the last of true umno generation, umno should be democratised at all levels ‘look at dr mahathir and the revelations about the judiciary and other things that have repeatedly cropped up after his retirement. it’s difficult to continue being a strongman now as the internet has changed
The larger majorities for the opposition indicate serious obstacles for Najib Abdul Razak and BN. Voters have decisively rejected his new leadership less than one week into his tenure. The debate will not only centre on the numbers, but around the factors that contributed to BN defeats.
Allow me to point out 10 factors that stand out.
1) Leadership credibility – Najib has a serious public image problem. Despite hiring public relations firms, his reform-oriented speeches and calls to give him a chance, the new premier has yet to win over the support of a majority of Malaysians. The results show that this problem is across races (even among the Malays), classes and generations.
The sources of the problem are two-fold:
a) The cloud of scandal that surrounds his leadership has darkened his future and unless the issues are addressed squarely, it is unlikely to dissipate. Apparently these unsubstantiated rumours have poisoned Najib’s well.
b) Equally important is that he has yet delivered on reform. Malaysians have listened to unfulfilled promises and are unlikely to be swayed with piecemeal measures, such as the 13 ISA release. They also see him as an integral part of the Abdullah Ahmad Badawi government which had failed to live up to its electoral promises.
2) Umno infighting - Najib faces divisions within his own ranks. Despite the convincing win of his cohort in the Umno polls, this has not translated into a mending of differences within his party. Dissatisfied Umno members joined the independent list of candidates in Bukit Selambau from the onset.
Yet, Najib’s actions since taking office also had an effect. The growing purge of Abdullah people from the party leadership ranks has upset many. This played itself out in the by-elections where Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s remarks deeply offended Abdullah supporters. The sheer number of Umno members – even elected Umno party representatives –who stayed home rather than vote allowed the strong Pakatan’s win to evolve into a landslide, notably in Perak.the third forcefactor is taking shape no independent minded members of parliament can ignorethe desperate call malaysian.you dont have to frog just stay where you are throw najib &his geng out yes, we can and we must-we must save malaysia.we are the last hope for our voters who voted us dam the umno warlords
Appointing Muhyiddin Yassin, seen as the man contributing to Abdullah’s downfall, as election operation manager and discouraging Khairy Jamaluddin from campaigning had agitated the rifts, but it was Mahathir’s presence that reopened the wound.
Umno remains splintered within and this hampers the party from even gaining back its traditional base. This says nothing about the fact that reforms in Umno have not been substantial and this obstacle undermines the party’s ability to win back younger voters and fence sitters.
3) BN weakness – When the votes were counted, the results showed that in the two Bukits, non-Malay voters remained squarely behind Pakatan. Over 80% of the Chinese voted for the opposition, and in some polling stations, including traditional Chinese new villages, that number rose to 85%.
Among Indian voters, as the results in Bukit Selambau notably show, over 60% voted for the opposition. One estate worker wearing a BN shirt pointed out that her vote was in her heart, not what she was wearing. The massive effort by the MIC to distribute patronage in the Indian community and promises of additional Hindraf releases won back some voters, but the effort only made a dent in what appears to be a major post-March 2008 shift among Indian voters toward the opposition.
The valiant efforts of Gerakan, MCA, and MIC failed to woo their traditional ground. The reason is well-known – the BN as a multi-ethnic coalition is not working. Najib’s choice to visit Sin Chew Daily last week without his BN counterparts and failure to publicly engage the non-Malay component party leaders openly illustrates that even his administration recognises that the current non-Malay party leaders are weak.
Ironically, Najib’s actions are weakening them further, as non-Malay voices from BN have been marginalised and this marginalisation has undermined their ability to win back support. Until the non-component parties have stronger leaders to defend their parties interests and move beyond a system of accepting secondary status, they are trapped in a structure that is not seen as representative.
Remember, the majority of constituencies in Malaysia are mixed (and definitely not a Malay majority that some Umno members suggest), and ultimately the coalition that wins these seats, wins over the majority of voters.
4) Greater Pakatan coherence – The West Malaysian results have sealed Pakatan electorally, at least in the short term.
While it is foolish to suggest that the ideological divisions and inter-party competition do not remain, the win in Bukit Gantang that has brought Pakatan’s extremes together – DAP and PAS – in unprecedented fashion and the viable cooperation between all three opposition parties in Bukit Selambau that boosted a weak PKR candidate to an impressive victory, shows that the opposition is institutionalising as a electoral force.
In contrast, the failures of Pakatan cooperation showed in Batang Ai, giving the BN a solid victory. The umbrella of change with calls for better governance and the move toward moderation on the issue of Islamic law are inclusive enough for the diversity of opinion within Pakatan and cohesive enough for the electorate.
5) Corruption – If there is one issue that brings the voters to the opposition, it is corruption. From the Chinese fisherman to the retired Malay military officer, the message of dissatisfaction is the same – the rot within.
The predatory activity in the campaign as funds allocated to gain support were pocketed by the leaders and the larger sense that corruption in land deals, party polls, and contracts is endemic has deeply alienated many voters who are fed up with this practice.
Piecemeal initiatives and the selective targeting of individuals as occurred in the run-up to the Umno polls only served to deepen this sense that the people’s money is being taken by graft as ordinary voters struggle in the more difficult economic climate. The disparity of wealth and blatant display of spoils of power all favour Pakatan, even despite the problems the opposition coalition faces by some within its own ranks on these issues.
6) Patronage politics declining – A new politics in Malaysia is evolving, even in semi-rural/rural constituencies. Traditionally the delivery of election goodies – this time round bicycles, TOL agreements, fishing licences, school allocations, temple funds, and open financial allocations – has been enough to win over these areas.
It did the trick in Batang Ai, where promised of over RM70 million (for over 8,006 voters) yielded a bumper BN majority. (As one person commented, it was a strategic long-term investment in their community.) Yet, it was not enough in West Malaysia. Patronage cannot guarantee victories any more.
The reasons here are also two-fold:
a) The sheer population numbers undercut the personal relationships of reciprocity that underscore patronage. It works in Sarawak because personal ties remain. This is not the case any longer in West Malaysia as migration, party changeovers and ironically development itself has transformed dynamics into more impersonal exchanges. No wonder voters take the money and vote independently.
b) Another underlying cause of this transformation has been the evolution of voting for issues, not financial rewards or development promises. Voters have rejected short-term gains, showing that long-term factors in areas of governance matter more.
7) Voter sophistication – This is tied to the greater sophistication of voters who get their information from a variety of sources. While the Internet did not permeate these areas to the same extent as the urban constituencies and many of these voters do not engage alternative media (such as Malaysiakini), they see the forest through the trees. They are tired of being taken for granted and treated like children that should follow blindly.
The underlying patronising approach toward voters ignores that Malaysians vote strategically and purposefully. The approach of BN has yet to move away from the patronising mould. For example, while Bukit Gantang contest had a more sophisticated BN campaign with clearer alternative messages on the issue of the royalty, these remain superficial and lack credibility among fence sitters.
Parties across the spectrum have to keep up with the voters to win over their support. This will mean both BN and Pakatan will have to deepen the messages from abstract ideals to more concrete deliverables.
8) Rejection of hardline racial tactics – The multi-ethnic calls of “We Love Pakatan” outside the Town Hall in Taiping last night from the multi-ethnic crowd illustrated that racial politics have evolved. It would be a mistake to say that ethnic factors do not matter – they remain paramount and continue to shape campaigning on both sides – but the by-elections show that new ties are forming.
When Malays sit in DAP ceramahs and listen intently to Chinese speeches (that most do not understand) and Chinese attend kampong sit-ins organised by PAS, norms and boundaries have been broken. The BN’s aim to use race – especially Malay rights – to galvanise its base only served to bring back a small number of its core. Hardline racial language only goes so far.
But it was also the anger over tactics in Perak, with Hindraf and police brutality that proved decisive in both West Malaysian contests. Among estate workers in Bukit Selambau, a woman’s eyes showed tears as she brought up the A Kugan case. The cries of Makkal Sakti permeated the crowds.
These April polls show that hardline tactics are risky and can backfire.
9) Personality and party – These contests also show that while both party and personality matter, party is decisive. In Bukit Selambau, a weak candidate was buoyed by party leaders and party machinery.
In Bukit Gantang, the power of Mohd Nizar Jamaluddin’s character gained support across the board, notably among Malays. Yet, his final victory was the product of Pakatan as half of his support came from non-Malays.
In Batang Ai, PKR’s candidate Jawah Gerang was not able to build on his previous service as the Lubok Antu MP to overcome the BN machine.
The candidate factor was not central, despite the choice of local candidates by BN. This was a national contest in which the BN showed that it still command support in East Malaysia, which has a third of the parliamentary seats, but continue to lose ground in West Malaysia, where the majority of Malaysians reside.
The only personality that mattered was Najib, and his image liabilities did not translate his coming into office into an adequate electoral boost. Even the personality factor of Anwar ibrahim did not have a major impact, as the new reformasi-minded younger leaders of Pakatan play a more prominent role in the campaigns.
In the final analysis, Najib’s political base may be even more reliant on East Malaysia than Abdullah’s post-March 2008. For Pakatan, the states of Sarawak and Sabah remain serious obstacles.
10) People’s power – Ultimately, these results were about the Malaysians who came out to vote. Despite the rain (and it does rain a lot in these Bukits) and the strategic placement of the election on a Tuesday (which clearly had an effect on the lower turnout of younger voters working outstation), many of them used their right to vote to send a message.
The end result is that Najib did not get the mandate he needed and the opposition was given another boost, especially in Perak, where the cloud of possible polls hangs over the court decision and mid-May requirement to hold a state assembly session.
Whether Najib and his new team will listen and reform, or whether Pakatan will deepen its effort to reach out to voters or coast along with the messages of March 2008 that can fade will be crucial in shaping outcomes in future elections (and more by-elections are on the horizon), it will not take away that in these three historic by-elections, the democratic process (even with its flaws) can empower communities across Malaysia.
DR BRIDGET WELSH is associate professor in Southeast Asian studies at John Hopkins University-SAIS, Washington DC. She was in Bukit Gantang and Bukit Selambau to observe the by-elections.
“tengku razaleigh is a dark horse. his recent reactivation in umno politics is a reflection of his undying ambition and considerable backing by umno veterans to fill the leadership void, particularly after the mongolian affair, when najib has become very vulnerable,” said an observer
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Matt Salleh, The Asia Sentinel, 7 July 2007
It has been a bad week for Najib Tun Razak, the deputy prime minister of Malaysia.
With his close friend Abdul Razak Baginda on trial for her murder, Najib was identified Monday by a witness as having had his picture taken with the victim, Mongolian translator Altantuya Shaariibuu.
But the worst could be over, leaving Najib weakened in his quest to succeed Abdullah Ahmad Badawi as Malaysia’s prime minister, but probably able to fend off political demise, unless there are further revelations. Burmaa Oyunchimeg, Altantuya’s cousin, who said she had seen the picture of Abdul Razak, Najib and Altantuya having dinner together, finished her testimony and has returned to Mongolia. No picture has been shown in court and none is likely to be.
Earlier in the week, there were reports that Tengku Razaleigh, a Malay prince and member of the old guard, former finance minister and one time pretender to the premiership, was working to challenge Najib for the job of deputy prime minister. But that challenge appears to have been blunted as well.
Altantuya was murdered on October 19 last year and dumped in a jungle clearing near the suburban city of Shah Alam, her body blown up with explosives after she had been shot twice. Abdul Razak is accused of engineering the killing at the hands of Chief Inspector Azilah Hadri and Constable Sirul Azhar Umar. Azilah was head of Najib’s personal security team and both men served as bodyguards to the country’s top political leaders. According to testimony this week, Azilah told officers that Sirul had killed the woman. There are questions over the admissibility of the confession and Sirul took the stand Friday to deny he had confessed.
Because the links of the case to top political figures, the trial is being treated with extraordinary sensitivity by the tame local press, partly because the leading newspapers, the New Straits Times, the Star and the top Malay-language papers, are controlled by the country’s ruling ethnic political parties. Thus, the photo revelation – an obvious front page story was buried deep inside the major papers.
At the time of Altantuya’s death, Abdul Razak was head of the Malaysian Strategic Research Center and perhaps Najib’s closest advisor. In an affidavit filed in December in his defense, Abdul Razak said he had contacted Azilah through Musa Safri, Najib’s aide-de-camp, to ask for help in dealing with Altantuya, who by that time was demanding as much as US$500,000 for the care of a baby she said Abdul Razak had fathered.
But despite the connections between Najib, the bodyguards, Abdul Razak and Altantuya, so far there has been no suggestion that Najib knowingly supplied the bodyguards to Abdul Razak. That gives Najib, the son of the late Prime Minister Tun Abdul Razak and the presumptive heir to the premiership, the chance to rebuild his battered connections with the old guard of the United Malays National Organisation, the lead party in the country’s ruling national ethnic coalition, the Barisan Nasional.
“Najib’s credibility ahead of taking over as PM is certainly dented to an extent over the Altantuya case,” says a Kuala Lumpur-based lawyer. “Despite the allegations of complicity in the murder trial and questions about the submarine sale (Abdul Razak and Najib have both been accused of profiting from a Malaysian government purchase), the fact remains that Najib is a well-entrenched politician. The Razak family history practically guarantees his rise.”
The universal assumption in Malaysia’s political and business community is that Najib certainly knew Altantuya and may well have partied with Abdul Razak and the woman, a petite, jet-setting beauty the political analyst met in Hong Kong and escorted on a whirlwind romance through Europe, showering her with money and jewels. Given Abdul Razak’s close relationship with Najib, there is little doubt that he at least met her, and may well have shared conversations with an increasingly desperate Abdul Razak, who was being blackmailed by Altantuya, a fact she even acknowledged in a letter read in court.
Prior to publicity over the murder, many in Malaysia thought Najib was growing powerful enough to challenge Badawi for the premiership, especially with former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad carrying on a vitriolic campaign against Badawi, who has been perceived as a weak and tired leader. Considerable resentment also has been stirred up against Abdullah Badawi’s son-in-law, Khairy Jamaluddin, whom many see as an opportunist.
“There is very little faith in Pak Lah (Badawi) and the feel good-factor has long dissipated,” one observer said. “Parliament debates this or that and the fact is that Badawi is never around, always overseas.” Thus much of the day-to-day administration of the government falls to Najib, who also functions in the powerful position of defense minister.
“Much of the real administration or tackling of issues lies with Najib. I understand that Najib since the beginning of being deputy prime minister is chairing more than 25 committees,” the lawyer said. “Most public pronouncements on major issues are made by Najib,” giving him increasing clout both with government figures and with those who need government favors.
But, says another Kuala Lumpur-based analyst, “The Mongolian affair altered the whole power formula. Najib’s previous arrogance towards Pak Lah has been replaced by humble deference.”
Certainly, Badawi has relied heavily on Najib to provide a semblance of leadership and discipline. He is likely to allow Najib to stay on if he can be assured of Najib’s loyalty. Onetime head of UMNO youth and a parliamentarian since he was 23, the 54-year-old Najib is now deputy president of UMNO and deeply entrenched in its leadership and political machinery.
“Najib could probably contribute more than any other UMNO minister towards ensuring the prolongation of UMNO’s political power,” said the analyst.
“Tengku Razaleigh is a dark horse. His recent reactivation in UMNO politics is a reflection of his undying ambition and considerable backing by UMNO veterans to fill the leadership void, particularly after the Mongolian affair, when Najib has become very vulnerable,” said an observer. otherchell, March 07, 2009 14:22:39
Post-colonial societies with political systems based on the vertical cleavages of race/ethnicity/religion are bound to be caught in this quagmire for generations after attaining independence from the departing colonial masters. The colonialists were, after all, the architects of these cleavages in the first place, particularly as they developed the colonial economy with imported indentured labour resulting in spatial as well as cultural separation.
The local leaders, being the elites of their respective racial groups, reinforced these structures because it benefited them to do so. This has been clearly manifested over the decades since Merdeka in the exclusivist politics of UMNO, MCA and MIC, where inclusiveness occurs only at the top of the social pyramid.
The resultant political mobilization that was carried out along racial lines from the very outset became the legitimate form of political mobilization and political discourse. The alternative, which had been deemed illegitimate by the British and deemed a threat to their economic interests, was political mobilization along class lines.
Class solidarity naturally cuts through race/ethnic/religious cleavages because people from the lower income groups can identify with each other regardless of their racial heritage, provided they are allowed to develop their organizations and political platforms absent the obfuscating ideology of race/ethnicity and absent the repression by the powers-that-be. Thus were the most advanced social policies attained by labour movements in countries that now are categorized as developed and advanced. This is not to deny that these countries had also benefited immensely from the plunder of the colonies, but without its labour movements only the rich would have been the beneficiaries of the capital accumulation and capital formation within their economies.
In the ongoing struggle between the South and the rapacious developed capitalist economies led by US corporatocracy, a population that is not united within a cohesive nationally agreed paradigm is extremely vulnerable. Sizeable segments of our population do not identify with the national aspirations because their worldview is shaped by the politics and ideology of race/ethnicity. Though one hopes to see the stirring of class-based politics that cuts across racial lines, we see opponents of racism articulating their opposition from an equally racist perspective. A case of pots calling kettles black. The demise of race politics and race consciousness is an essential precondition to survive the onslaught from desperate developed imperialist powers. (The Malaysian Insider) - A senior aide to an Umno minister was nabbed by the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission on Wednesday for suspected graft.The arrest coincides with the final stretch of frantic campaigning for this month’s party election and comes at a time when the MACC is facing some serious questions on its effectiveness and impartiality in tackling corruption.
The Malaysian Insider has learnt from informed sources that the political secretary to the minister was stopped with more than RM50,000 in his car.
He has been released on bail but the party grapevine was abuzz with news of the arrest which could have significant impact on the minister’s fortunes in Umno and continued employment in the incoming Najib administration.
The minister is competing for a position on the party’s supreme council. This is the second time that an aide or agents of a supreme council candidate has been arrested by the MACC.
In January, anti-corruption officers picked up 12 party divisional officers. They were allegedly working to help Datuk Norza Zakaria defend his supreme council seat. The men are being investigated for distributing between RM300 and RM500 to some of the 2,000 delegates who will be attending the general assembly-cum-elections.
Norza has also been questioned by the MACC but has denied any involvement in money politics, saying that he was a victim of a scheme to discredit him.
So far, no senior Umno politician has been charged by the MACC with corrupt acts related to the party election, though there has been a trail of claims saying that money has been exchanging like never before for Election 2009.
The MACC’s chief Datuk Seri Ahmad Said Hamdan said recently that the agency had completed investigations into complaints of money politics but had uncovered no evidence, a statement which invited derision from the Opposition.
DAP’s Lim Kit Siang labelled the MACC nothing but a catspaw of Umno. “Congratulations to the MACC chief commissioner for clearing Umno of all allegations of the corruption of money politics — which must have even caught Umno leaders, delegates and members by surprise that Umno is so clean, pristine and pure!
“Except that this is the biggest indictment on the MACC as a meaningful, effective and an intrepid anti-corruption body!,” he posted on his blog.
Malaysians accept all these scandals as a way of life here, said the lawyer, who is close to the Mahathir family. “A lethargy has set in. Our Inspector General of Police, Deputy Security Internal Minister and others have been accused of corruption, and all sorts of other scandalous allegations are swirling around. After a while, people get tired and confused. And really the system allows it. They pat your back and tell you to do it again.”
