Some analysts say the survival of Mr. Abhisit's government could depend on Thailand's powerful military again intervening in the country's chaotic pol

By JAMES HOOKWAY

PATHUM THANI, Thailand – Hotly contested parliamentary by-elections scheduled for Sunday could determine how long new Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva can stay at the helm of this troubled country as it tries to cope with the global economic slowdown.

Twenty-nine seats in Thailand's 480-seat Parliament are up for grabs in the weekend elections. If Mr. Abhisit's fragile ruling coalition -- which took office last month -- fails to win the bulk of the seats, it will reduce his already thin majority in Parliament and leave his government vulnerable to a no-confidence vote.

Mr. Abhisit faces an uphill battle in securing more than a handful of the seats being contested, all of which are in rural areas where ousted former Premier Thaksin Shinawatra is still popular.

The seats were previously held by pro-Thaksin parties and were declared vacant in early December after Thailand's Constitutional Court disbanded several political parties loyal to Mr. Thaksin for alleged election violations. The court ruling forced the collapse of a government led by Somchai Wongsawat, Mr. Thaksin's brother-in-law, and opened the way for Mr. Abhisit's coalition to take power.

Mr. Thaksin, who is in self-exile to escape imprisonment on a corruption conviction, has wide support of voters in Thailand's countryside, where pro-Thaksin political parties have built a strong grassroots network.

Some analysts say the survival of Mr. Abhisit's government could depend on Thailand's powerful military again intervening in the country's chaotic politics to prop up his anti-Thaksin coalition. In September 2006, the army staged a coup to unseat Mr. Thaksin, who had been in power since late 2001.

But this time, some observers suggest the army is more likely to focus on dissuading Mr. Thaksin's supporters in Parliament from trying to vote out Mr. Abhisit's three-week-old government. "I think we could see some more military and extra-parliamentary pressure exerted on their opponents in order to prop up the government," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political science professor at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University.

Some economists warn that the lingering struggle between pro-Thaksin's populists and the conservative ruling elites backing Mr. Abhisit's Democrat Party makes the country virtually ungovernable. That's a significant problem at a time when Thailand -- one of Southeast Asia's largest economies -- is scrambling to cope with slowing global trade.

Lay-offs are beginning to spread in the country's vital export businesses and the central bank forecasts Thailand could slip into recession in the first quarter of this year. To make matters worse, Thailand's $15 billion-a-year tourism industry was devastated when thousands of anti-Thaksin demonstrators seized and closed Bangkok's two international airports for a week in November.

The central bank says that episode cost Thailand at least $8.3 billion in tourist receipts and exports – a figure greater than the impact of the 2003 SARS epidemic and the 2004 tsunami.

Mr. Abhisit came into power vowing to arrest the economic decline. The 44-year-old, British-educated politician was elected premier on Dec. 15, after Thai military leaders helped arrange a number of defections by previously pro-Thaksin members of parliament. That gave Mr. Abhisit's coalition a narrow 37-seat parliamentary majority.

One of Mr. Abhisit's first moves was to announce a $8.6 billion economic stimulus plan to shore up Thailand's agricultural sector, which employs many of Mr. Thaksin's supporters.

But Mr. Abhisit's hold on power is threatened by Thai constitutional rules which prevent government cabinet ministers from voting on no-confidence motions.

That means that the 30 members of parliament who hold cabinet posts in Mr. Abhisit's administration would have to abstain if he was challenged in the Thai legislature.

Such a scenario could arise if Mr. Abhisit's coalition does poorly in this weekend's by-elections. An influx of new anti-Abhisit MPs, coupled with the ban on ministers voting, could mean the government might lose a no-confidence vote.

Going into the by-elections, things don't look promising for Mr. Abhisit's coalition. In Pathum Thani, just north of Bangkok, a red-shirted brigade of pro-Thaksin supporters has already prevented Mr. Abhisit from helping his Democrat Party candidate campaign by stockpiling bags of pigs' blood and human excrement to fling at him if the prime minister dares to show up.

"People here want to express what they really feel about the way Mr. Abhisit and the Democrats took power," said Pichai Kongkaew, a pro-Thaksin organizer in Pathum Thani. "It's just not acceptable to us."

Mr. Pichai and his colleagues are working around the clock to rally support for their preferred candidate, Chanakarn Yuenyong of the opposition Pracharaj Party. "I think we can chase the Democrats out of here," Mr. Pichai declared.

Activists in other constituencies are pursuing a similar strategy of confronting government candidates. On Wednesday, Mr. Thaksin's supporters pelted a prominent Democrat politician, former prime minister Chuan Leekpai, with rotten eggs as he campaigned for a Democrat candidate in the northern province of Lampang. They also threw eggs at a minister in the new government outside the main government building in Bangkok.

Still, the Democrat candidate in Pathum Thani, Apinan Chuaybamrung, sees Sunday's election as his best chance yet of winning a parliamentary seat. Mr. Apinan has tried three times to get elected in this same constituency, but this time he is playing up Thailand's chronic national political problems and arguing that a vote for the Democrats is the best way of resolving the political crisis which has divided the country for the past three years.

Some potential voters are responding. "I don't always vote Democrat, but I will this time. It's time to settle our differences," said Manoon Banchongchuay, a 48-year-old factory worker.